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Current Research Papers by the Wharton Marketing Faculty

This page lists, alphabetically by faculty author, research papers which are "working papers," that is, the research is still in progress. Many of these papers have been submitted to refereed journals for feedback, but the authors also appreciate comments from peers and other readers. These papers will usually be published in a research journal or as a chapter in a book within a year or two (and are then removed from this list).

Papers in the former Marketing Department Working Papers Series, which included selected papers by Marketing faculty from 1987 to 1994 and from 1995 to 2001, are not available.

We are striving to make all working papers available online in Adobe's PDF format, but in some cases this has not been possible. If you wish to contact the author about an unavailable paper, please use the e-mail link provided next to his or her name.

Use the Search button at the top of this page to find a specific topic in such key decision areas as competitive strategy, creating and managing customer value, new product development and diffusion, and increasing marketing mix effectiveness, as well as a variety of miscellaneous topics.

J. Scott Armstrong - Faculty Page - E-mail

• J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green, "Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share" - Full Text

• Alfred G. Cuzán, J. Scott Armstrong, and Randall J. Jones, "Combining Methods to Forecast the 2004 Presidential Election: The Pollyvote" - Full Text

• Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong, "Incompatible Measures of 'Statistical Significance': P's and α's" - Full Text

• Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong, "Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts"  - Full Text

• Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong "Structured Analogies in Forecasting" - Full Text

• J. S. Armstrong, Fred Collopy, and J. Thomas Yokum, "Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series," forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting - Full Text

David R. Bell - Faculty Page - E-mail

• D. R. Bell and Christian A. L. Hilber, "An Empirical Test of the Theory of Sales: Do Household Storage Costs Affect Consumer and Store Behavior" - Full Text
• D. R. Bell and Yasemin Boztuğ (2004), "The Effect of Inventory on Purchase Incidence: Empirical Anlaysis of Oposing Forces of Storage and Consumption" - Full Text
• D. R. Bell,. "Issues in Retailing," University of Chile, July 13, 2004 - Web version - Original PowerPoint version
• D. R. Bell and Sangyoung Song (2004), "Social Contagion and Trial on the Internet: Evidence from Online Grocery Retailing" - Full Text
• D. R. Bell, Andre Bonfrer, and Pradeep K. Chintagunta (2003, "Recovering SKU-level Preferences and Response Sensitivities form Market Share Models Estimated on Item Aggregates" - Full Text
• D. R. Bell, Yusong Wang, and V. Padmanabhan (2002), "The Effect of Partial Forward Integration on Retailer Behavior: An Explanantion for Co-Located Stores" - Full Text with Technical Appendix
• D. R. Bell and Yusong Wang (2002), "Customer-Centric Coordination: Structure and Contracts in Channels of Distribution," revising for Sloan Management Review
• D. R. Bell and J. Chiang (2001), "Coupon Bundles and Consumer Budgets" - Abstract
• D. R. Bell, Randolph E. Bucklin, and Catarina Sismeiro (2000), "Consumer Shopping Behaviors and In-Store Expenditure Decisions" - Full Text
• D. R. Bell and G. J. Fitzsimons (2000), "An Experimental and Empirical Analysis of Consumer Response to Stockouts" - Full Text

Lisa E. Bolton - Faculty Page - E-mail

• Bolton, Lisa E. and Joseph W. Alba, "Consumer Response to the Pricing and Utility of Goods and Services" - Full Text
• Bolton, Lisa E. and Chip Heath, "Believing in First Mover Advantage" - Full Text
• Bolton, Lisa E., Paul N. Bloom, and Joel B. Cohen, "The Marketing of 'Get Out of Jail Free Cards': How Remedies Encourage Risky Consumption Behavior" - Full Text

Eric Bradlow - Faculty Page - E-mail

• Andres Musalem, E. T. Bradlow, and Jagmohan S. Raju, "On the Estimation of Individual-Level Choice Models on Aggregate Share Data using Data Augmentation" - Full Text
• Young-Hoon Park, Su Bom Rhee, and E. T. Bradlow (2003), "An Integrated Model for Who, When, and How Much in Internet Auctions" - Full Text
• Maurice E. Schweitzer, John C. Hershey, and E. T. Bradlow (2003), "Promises and Lies: Restoring Violated Trust" - Full Text
• E. T. Bradlow, Y. Hu, and T.-H. Ho, "A Learning-Based Model for Inputting Missing Levels in Partial Conjoint Profiles," submitted to Marketing Science - Full Text
• E. T. Bradlow, S. J. Hoch, and J. W. Hutchinson, "An Assessment of Basic Computer Proficiency Among Active Internet Users: Test Construction, Calibration, Antecedents, and Consequences," to appear in Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics - Full Text
• E. Zanutto and E. T. Bradlow, "The Perils of Data Pruning in Consumer Choice Models" submitted to Journal of Marketing Research - Full Text
• E. T. Bradlow, "The Big Three and Donations: A Bayesian Modeling Approach," submitted to Journal of Marketing Research
• E. T. Bradlow, P. E. Green, and A. M. Krieger, "Hierarchical Bayes in Conjoint Analysis: An Application Involving Embedded Prices"
• Cain, L. B., E. T. Bradlow, and L. M. Lodish, "Who's #1? Accounting for Heterogeneity in Sales Force Evaluation," submitted to Marketing Science
• Schmittlein, D. C. and E. T. Bradlow, "Launching New Nondurables in Japan: Marketing Practices and Marketing Consequences"
• Bradlow, E. T. and J. S. Steckel, "A Bayesian Model for Internet Pageview Data"

George S. Day - Faculty Page - E-mail

• "Customer Relationships Go Digital" with Katrina Hubbard, to be revised for Sloan Management Review - Full Text
• "Shakeouts in Digital Markets" with Adam Fein, to be revised for California Management Review - Full Text (PDF)
• "Diagnosing the Customer Relating Capability" with C. Van den Bulte, to be submitted to Journal of Marketing
• "Winning the Competition for Customer Relationships" to be submitted to Sloan Management Review - Full Text
• "Propensity to Answer Surveys on the Internet," with Katrina Hubbard and Elaine  Zannuto, to be submitted to the  Journal of Marketing Research
• "Marketing and the CEO's Growth Imperative?"to be submitted to Marketing  Management  - Full Text

Xavier Drèze - Faculty Page - E-mail

• "Modeling Movie Choice," with Andrew Ainslie and Fred Zufryden, under review at Marketing Science.
• "The Measurement of Online Visibility and its Impact on the Internet," with Fred Zufryden, under review at the Journal of Interactive Marketing.
• "A Renewable-Resource Approach to Database Valuation," with André Bonfrer, under review at Marketing Science.
• "Too Close to Quit: The Effect of Reward Levels on Consumer Loyalty," with Joseph C. Nunes.

Jehoshua Eliashberg - Faculty Page - E-mail

• "A New Dynamic Market Share Forecasting Model Incorporating Dyadic Decision Making," (with Min Ding)

• "Antecedents and Consequences of Third-Party Products Systems: Lessons from the International Motion Picture Industry" (with Mark Leenders)

• "Prerelease Product Expectations and Market Performance: An Empirical Analysis" (with Anita Elberse, and Tech-Hua Ho)

Skander Essegaier - Faculty Page - E-mail

• Skander Essegaier, "Pricing Access Services in the Presence of Flexible Capacity," March 2003.
• Skander Essegaier, " Pricing Access Services with Fluctuating Demand," August 2003.
• Skander Essegaier, K. Sudhir and Joseph Pancras "Inferring Hierarchical Market Structure: The Impact of Unobserved Market Characteristics," July 2002.
• Skander Essegaier and Tamer Boyaci, "Manufacturer's Target Rebate Policies and Retail Competition," June 2001.

Peter S. Fader - Faculty Page - E-mail

• Fader, Peter S. and Bruce G. S. Hardie (2005), "The Value of Simple Models in New Product Forecasting and Customer-Base Analysis," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, forthcoming - Full Text
• Fader. Peter S., Bruce G.S.Hardie, and Ka Lok Lee (2005), "'Counting Your Customers' the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model."  forthcoming, Marketing Science  - Full Text
• Schweidel, David A., Peter S. Fader, and Robert J. Meyer (October 2004), "What Matters in Managerial Judgments of Customer Value?" under first review at Journal of Marketing - Full Text.
• Fader, Peter S., Bruce G. S.Hardie, and Paul D.Berger (September 2004), "Customer-Base Analysis with Discrete-Time Transaction Data," under first review at Management Science - Full Text
• Fader, Peter S., Bruce G. S. Hardie, and Ka Lok Lee (July 2004), "RFM and CLV: Using Iso-value Curves for Customer Base Analysis" - Full Text
• Fader, Peter S. and  Bruce G. S. Hardie, "Can We Infer 'Trial and Repeat' Numbers From Aggregate Sales Data?," under first review at Journal of Marketing Research (July 2003) ? Full Text
• Fader. Peter S., Bruce G. S. Hardie, Robert Stevens, and Jim Findley, "Forecasting New Product Sales in a Controlled Test Market Environment," under first review at Interfaces (July 2003) - Full Text
• Park, Young-Hoon and Peter S. Fader, "Modeling Browsing Behavior at Multiple Websites," forthcoming Marketing Science - Full Text, Technical Appendix
• Moe, Wendy and Peter S. Fader, "Dynamic Conversion Behavior at e-Commerce Sites," forthcoming in Management Science - Full Text
• Moe, Wendy W. and Peter S. Fader, "Capturing Evolving Visit Behavior in Clickstream Data," under second review at Journal of Interactive Marketing (May 2003) - Full Text
• Johnson, Eric J., Wendy Moe, Peter S. Fader, Steven Bellman, and Jerry Lohse, "On the Depth and Dynamics of Online Search Behavior," under fourth review at Management Science (May 2003) - Full Text
• Hardie, Bruce G.S., Leonard M. Lodish, Peter S. Fader, Alistair P. Sutcliffe, and William T. Kirk, "Attribute-based Market Share Models:  Methodological Developments and Managerial Applications," Completed first review at Marketing Science, being revised for resubmission.

Paul E. Green - Faculty Page - E-mail

• E. T. Bradlow, P. E. Green, and A. M. Krieger, "Hieracrhical Bayes in Conjoint Analysis: An Application Involving Embedded Prices"

Stephen J. Hoch - Faculty Page - E-mail

• Edward J. Fox and S. J. Hoch, "Cherry Picking" - Full Text
• E. T. Bradlow, S. J. Hoch, and J. W. Hutchinson, "Test Construction, Calibration, Antecedents, and Consequences of Basic Computer Proficiency," submitted to Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics - Full Text
• S. J. Hoch, Alan L. Montgomery, and Young-Hoon Park, "Long-Term Growth Trends in Private Label Market Shares," Full Text
• Erica Mina Okada and S. J. Hoch, "Spending Time versus Spending Money," Full Text

J. Wesley Hutchinson - Faculty Page - E-mail

• Pierre Chandon, J. W. Hutchinson, and Scott H. Young (2002), "Unseen is Unsold: Assess Visual Equity with Commercial Eye-Tracking Data,"  under review at Marketing Science - Full Text
• Chandon, Pierre, J. Wesley Hutchinson, and Scott H. Young (2001), "Measuring the Value of Point-of-Purchase Marketing with Commercial Eye-Tracking Data," under revision for Journal of Marketing Research - Full Text
• Hutchinson, J. Wesley, Joseph W. Alba, and Eric Eisenstein (2001) "Numerical Inferences:  The Effects of Prior Expectations, Semantic Frames, and Graphical Formats on Budget Allocation Decisions" - Full Text

Barbara E. Kahn - Faculty Page - E-mail

• Andrea Morales, Barbara E. Kahn, Cynthia Huffman, Leigh McAlister, and Susan M. Bronizrszyk, "Perceptions of Assortment Variety: The Effects of Congruency Between Consumer's Internal and Retailer's External Organization," forthcoming in Journal of Retailing - Full Text
• Elizabeth Gelfand Miller, Mary Frances Luce, Barbara E. Kahn, and Emily F. Conant, "The Emotional Costs of Mammography Efficacy," under review at Journal of Applied Social Psychology -Full Text
• Satya Menon and Barbara E. Kahn, "Corporate Sponsorship of Philanthropic Activities: When Do They Impact Perception of Sponsor Brand?" forthcoming in Journal of Consumer Psychology -Full Text

Leonard M. Lodish - Faculty Page - E-mail

• "When do Higher Prices Increase Demand? The Dual Role of Price in Consumers' Judgments" with Manoj Thomas and Vicki Morwitz, submitted to Marketing Science, 2003 - Full Text
• Cain, L. B., E. T. Bradlow, and L. M. Lodish, "Who's #1? Accounting for Heterogeneity in Sales Force Evaluation," submitted to Marketing Science
• C. B. Bhattacharya and Leonard M. Lodish, "Brand Health: Basic Concepts and a Store Scanner Data Application," submitted to Marketing Science - Abstract
• B. G. S. Hardie, L. M. Lodish, P. S. Fader, A. P. Sutcliffe, and W. T. Kirk, "Attribute-based Market Share Models: Methodological Development and Managerial Applications," under revision at Marketing Science - Abstract
• "Myopia and Competitive Reputations in De-Escalating Promotional Compilation: Game Theoretic Intuition versus Naive Decision Making," with Amy Kallianpur, submitted to Management Science.
• "Consumer Shopping and Spending Across Retail Formats," with Ed Fox and Alan Montgomery, to appear in Journal of Business.
• "Use of 'Marketing Metrics' - A Different Point of View," to appear in an MSI and Yaffee Center invited series on Marketing Metrics, edited by D. Reibstein and Rajeev Batra.
• C. Bhattacharya and L. M. Lodish, "Towards a System for Monitoring Brand Health" - Abstract
• C. Bhattacharya and L. M. Lodish, "A System for Monitoring Brand Health" - Abstract
• "Wine Pricing: A Regression Analysis in the V.S. Market," with L. Arias, Orkun Sak, and Andres Musalem, under 2nd review for The Journal of Wine Marketing.